Storm Watch

Monthly Outlook c   Cool, unsettled and quite sunny   This is likely to be a colder January than we've been used to recently, with Atlantic systems often taking a southerly track. The first week will see very little Atlantic influence. The first two days will be cold and cloudy with highs around freezing for most, and a few wintry showers are possible in eastern coastal districts of England, though not amounting to much. Frosts will be sharp where skies clear, most likely in the western half of Britain. On the 3rd and 4th, it will turn milder from the north-west, but still below average, with a band of rain moving slowly south through Scotland and northern England, and temperatures will rise to around 3-5C in the rain band. Cold easterly winds will follow temporarily behind the band on the 5th, and the rain will turn increasingly to snow as it heads south through southern England. It will largely peter out over south-east England, but south-west England has about 70% chance of widespread snow for a time, even at low levels. The 6th and 7th will be cold, dry and sunny with highs around freezing again and sharp frosts, though western Scotland and Northern Ireland will turn milder and cloudier on the 7th with some rain and hill snow. The second week will see milder conditions spreading from the north-west as the Atlantic westerlies start to take hold and high pressure slips away to the south-east. Around the middle part of the week it is likely to turn quite wet and windy for most, with temperatures up at 8-11C. However, I expect the milder weather to be short-lived, as the lows will still be taking quite a southerly track, and towards midmonth there will be further cold incursions from the north, with snow events in central and northern regions. The third week will be cold and unsettled with further chances of snow, especially for central and northern regions, though it is likely to turn milder again for a time around the 20th. The last third of the month is very uncertain, but my current guess is for a fairly cold, dry final third, particularly for eastern regions, with blocking highs to the east and north-east re-establishing. Overview January will be another fairly cold month, especially by recent standards. Despite some milder weather at times during the middle third of the month, I expect the CET to climb to only 3.3C at the month's end, making it the coldest January since 2001- though Scotland may well end up with its coldest January since the 1980s. Rainfall will be below normal over south-eastern England with shortages of 20-40%, but elsewhere it will be quite a wet month with excesses of around 20% in most regions. Sunshine will be above average again in most regions, with excesses of 20-40% generally, and 60% in eastern Scotland. Forecast issued by Ian Simpson (aka Thundery wintry showers) on 1 January 2009. netweather.tv©