Quiet spell in first week November, near average temperatures

UPDATED 19TH OCTOBER - COVERING THE PERIOD 26TH OCTOBER - 17TH NOVEMBER.

Overview
Mean temperatures will generally be within 0.5C of the 1981-2010 long-term normal, with mild and cold spells tending to counterbalance each other.

Rainfall totals are forecast to be close to normal in the north of Scotland and generally a little below normal elsewhere, mainly due to a settled spell in the first week of November.

Sunshine totals are expected to be above average in most eastern parts of the UK, but generally a little below normal in most western areas.

Week 2: Monday 26th October - Sunday 1st November
This period will have persistent low pressure over and to the west of Iceland, with a strong Russian anticyclone close to eastern Scandinavia but not far west enough to become a major influence on Britain's weather. Thus, this period will be generally unsettled with westerly and south-westerly winds, and it will be windy at times especially in the north-west of the UK. During the mid to latter part of the week the Azores High will link up with the east Scandinavian/Russian high at times and ridge into southern Britain, bringing more settled weather into the south of Britain, but there will still generally be a west to south-westerly flow.

It will be wet in most parts of the country early in the week, with rain belts periodically moving in off the North Atlantic interspersed with brighter showery weather, and temperatures generally a little below average for the time of year. Later in the week it will generally turn warmer than average with a stronger tropical maritime influence, meaning that dull damp weather will be common over and to the west of high ground, but the south and east of England and sheltered parts of eastern Scotland will see some sunshine coming through at times.

Mean temperatures will be very close to the 1981-2010 long-term normal during this week, but up to a degree above in the south-east and about 1C below in Northern Ireland.

Rainfall totals will tend to be close to normal in most parts of the country, with a wet start to the week in most parts, and a drier second half of the week, although in north-west Scotland it will be the other way round with below average rainfall early in the week, and turning wetter mid to late week.

Sunshine totals will tend to be below average in the west and above average in the east.

Week 3: Monday 2nd November - Sunday 8th November
This period will probably see high pressure building further north for a time, resulting in a period of relatively settled weather for most of the country, peaking around midweek. North-western Britain, particularly north-west Scotland, will be most prone to a continuation of the unsettled weather of Week 2, with high pressure tending especially to ridge into the south, and low pressure systems continuing to track to the north and north-west of Scotland. There is potential for the weather to turn more unsettled later in the week with the Madden-Julian Oscillation possibly heading into phase 7 which promotes more of a north-westerly type over the British Isles and pressure falling over Scandinavia.

Mean temperatures during this week will be above normal in the north, especially in eastern Scotland where positive anomalies may approach 2C, but may end up close to or just below normal in the southern half of England and in south Wales, with high pressure resulting in some cold nights with frost and fog, and where fog lingers during the daytime, daytime temperatures will end up below normal. Rainfall totals will generally be below normal, except in northern Scotland where they may end up close to normal. Sunshine amounts are more uncertain, but are likely to be above normal in most parts of England and Wales and in south-east Scotland, but below normal in Northern Ireland and in western and northern Scotland.


Rest of month: Monday 9th November - Tuesday 17th November
This period will probably have frequent north-westerly winds and temperatures fluctuating around the long-term normal but overall on the cool side, and high pressure periodically ridging into the west and south. There is a chance of some places, mainly on high ground and in the north, seeing their first sleet/snow of the season, but the confidence in this is currently low. The prevailing air flow may turn more westerly towards mid-November with the weather turning more unsettled generally. Temperatures are forecast to be a little below normal overall during this period, but not unusually so, with negative anomalies of around 1C in most parts of the country. Rainfall totals will probably be below normal in south-east Scotland and north-east England, but near normal in most other regions. Sunshine is expected to be above normal in most parts of the UK, but near to slightly below in some western coastal areas.

Courtesy of Netweather